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Kautilya The Contemplator's avatar

Sharp analysis. I agree with the core thesis that post-1945 “generosity” was a design to cultivate dependencies, and today’s tariff-plus-subsidy toolkit formalizes that hierarchy while offshoring costs to allies.

Two additions that strengthen your frame:

1. Extraterritorial finance as the real whip. Beyond tariffs, the dollar-clearing system, secondary sanctions, and export-control “deemed” restrictions let Washington discipline allies without a single marine landing. OFAC risk, compliance de-risking by global banks, and SWIFT messaging leverage function as invisible capital controls that steer industrial choices and M&A, especially in dual-use sectors.

2. Tech stack lock-in over trade flows. Standards bodies, IP regimes, and chokepoints (EDA tools, advanced lithography, cloud hyperscalers, app stores) entrench dependency more durably than a tariff schedule. Once an ally’s critical infrastructure and defense systems are architected around US software, chips and update pipelines, “re-sovereignizing” is a decade-long capex and talent problem—not a policy switch.

This raises the uncomfortable question: if allies now face a managed choice between formalized subordination and costly re-platforming, can Europe and Japan realistically build multi-hub financial, energy and technology architectures (without triggering punitive retaliation) fast enough to avoid becoming de-industrialized adjuncts to an extractive, protectionist core?

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