Russia will never allow Iran to go under because of its need for the North-South transportation corridor. That makes Iran almost as important for Russia's survival as Ukraine. With Russian backing, Israel can't do much and the US is unlikely to want a direct fight with Russia over Iran.
After the conflict with Iran this summer it surfaced the impediment to Russian assistance to Iran was coming from Tehran. It would seem that prior to the conflict there were a number of internal forces at work in Iran - not all of them in favor of deepening military dependence on Moscow. How things are now we will see.
A lot of this 'analysis' relies on rather muted reactions from Americas opponents. I think they really need to up their war gaming as much of it is just plain stupid... as if they can act overseas without impact at home.. without significant losses to themselves or allies... that regimes might change in favour of their adversaries... its crazy.
There is a real disconnect between what western intelligence thinks and reality. I think Ukraine is a great example of this. The failure of sanctions was never even considered.
Russia will never allow Iran to go under because of its need for the North-South transportation corridor. That makes Iran almost as important for Russia's survival as Ukraine. With Russian backing, Israel can't do much and the US is unlikely to want a direct fight with Russia over Iran.
After the conflict with Iran this summer it surfaced the impediment to Russian assistance to Iran was coming from Tehran. It would seem that prior to the conflict there were a number of internal forces at work in Iran - not all of them in favor of deepening military dependence on Moscow. How things are now we will see.
A lot of this 'analysis' relies on rather muted reactions from Americas opponents. I think they really need to up their war gaming as much of it is just plain stupid... as if they can act overseas without impact at home.. without significant losses to themselves or allies... that regimes might change in favour of their adversaries... its crazy.
There is a real disconnect between what western intelligence thinks and reality. I think Ukraine is a great example of this. The failure of sanctions was never even considered.